Mark

@WAR AT THE MOVIES: PART II: MARCH MADNESS

 

QUICK NOTE: I'm going to shorten these posts to the films that I'm excited for instead of the whole spectrum of films coming out at a time.

WEEKEND: MARCH 19, 2010

NAME: The Bounty Hunter
DISTRIBUTOR: Paramount
MPAA RATING: PG-13
SOURCE: Original Screenplay
MAJOR GENRE: Action
PRODUCTION BUDGET: $40 - $60 million
OPENING WEEKEND POTENTIAL: $20 million
BOX OFFICE POTENTIAL: $55 million
POTENTIAL RATING: 5.0/10
PERSONAL THOUGHTS: I have no real interest in seeing this film, but I have become slightly found of Gerard Butler in films. I guess I will have to wait and see for myself.
BOX OFFICE CHANCES: After the huge success of Alice in Wonderland, It would be safe to assume that no film this weekend will be able to top it. That doesn't mean this film isn't going to make money. It will probably start fast, and fade over the weekend. Then it should have a nice hold over the next few weeks. Eventually finding a profit in the home market. It should all be enough to make Paramount happy with the outcome.

NAME: Repo Men
DISTRIBUTOR: Universal
MPAA RATING: R
SOURCE: Based of a novel
MAJOR GENRE: Action
PRODUCTION BUDGET: $40 - $60 million
OPENING WEEKEND POTENTIAL: $18 million
BOX OFFICE POTENTIAL: $45 million
POTENTIAL RATING: 6.0/10
PERSONAL THOUGHTS: This film reminds me of Repo: The Genetic Opera; in fact, it looks like a much more mainstream version of it. I will have to wait and see it for myself, and then I will make my choice on the subject. However, everyone interested in seeing this film should at least watch Repo before hand.
BOX OFFICE CHANCES: This film will have to find an audience interested in it in the midst of Alice in Wonderland. I'm sure that will be easy, but don't expect huge numbers. It could even fail to reach $10 million opening weekend.

WEEKEND: MARCH 26th, 2010
This weekend we finally start to figure out just how much an impact 3D has become in terms of opening box office success.

NAME: Hot Tub Time Machine
DISTRIBUTOR: MGM
MPAA RATING: R
SOURCE: Original Screenplay
MAJOR GENRE: Comedy
PRODUCTION BUDGET: $30-$50 million
OPENING WEEKEND POTENTIAL: $18 million
BOX OFFICE POTENTIAL: $50 million
POTENTIAL RATING: 6.5/10
PERSONAL THOUGHTS: This movie will either be another Hangover buddy comedy that has you laughing the whole way through, or a "WTF was that all about..." type of comedy. I'm excited for it, but I don't really know for sure which it will really be at the moment.
BOX OFFICE CHANCES: Even if this film is as funny as The Hangover (every doubtful) it wont get anywhere near the amount of box office. That being said, I'm sure it will see a profit later on. Movies like this tend to do better in the home market. Given the healthy box office returns that I have predicted. This film will find nice profit later down the line.

NAME: How To Train Your Dragon
DISTRIBUTOR: Dreamworks
MPAA RATING: PG
SOURCE: Original Screenplay
MAJOR GENRE: Comedy
PRODUCTION BUDGET: $180 million
OPENING WEEKEND POTENTIAL: $80 million
BOX OFFICE POTENTIAL: $230 million
POTENTIAL RATING: 7.0/10
PERSONAL THOUGHTS: Dreamworks made me really happy with the quality it put into Kung Fu Panda, (It was not close to any Pixar film in my book, but it was there best effort since the original Shrek.) but then they had to go an mess it up with the feel good but ultimately crappy Monsters vs. Aliens. I'm hoping that Dreamworks can recaim its footing, and come out with another quality film... at least before I have to sit through the painful fourth and final installment of the Shrek series.
BOX OFFICE CHANCES: I'm never thought this film could gross more then Kung Fu Panda, but the 3D really helps. If the film can see a very healthy opennign weekend, then prehaps it is possible. I'm not going to say we are going to see Alice in Wonderland numbers, but I think we might see the second biggest March opening ever. Time will tell.

AVATAR FOR THE WIN! (WEEKEND BOX OFFICE BREAKDOWN)

    Avatar has found itself in a very rare situation this weekend. Falling a mere 26.2% over the weekend to $50.3 million to win a fourth weekend in a row. (In this day and age a turkey is hard to come by...let alone a fourth.) What does this mean? The answer is really simple actually...nobody really knows. There is a lot of people raving about how Avatar is going to steamroll Titanic seemingly invincible record of $1.8 billion and just keep trucking. However, with $1.34 billion, it has a long way until it really is able to do just that. The international market is almost impossible for me to call, so I'm just going to cross my fingers.

    Domestically? Avatar has actually gross $430 million in a mere 24 days. It has actually become the second fastest to hit that mark behind The Dark Knight. It's $50.3 million dollar weekend has become the highest fourth weekend in history. Easily beating Titanic's $28 million dollar fourth weekend. (Which in today's numbers would equal to around $45 million.) After such a great non-holiday fourth weekend. It is really hard to actually see where the this film will end up on the domestic charts. If it is able to stay on the top of the charts for at least one more week, anything that ends up beating it will basically be a formality at that point. As to where it will be by the end of the week, it will most likely be in the top five domestic films, if not just a little off.

    Sherlock Holmes continues to see its way to second spot after three. (I was right about the placement of the top three, but I wasn't right about the drop off's of all three.) The movie solved its way to $15.58 million. That just barely beat out Alvan and the gang with $15.56 million. The films have made $165 and $178 million respectively. Considering that both cost less then $100 million to make, and will gross $300-$400 million worldwide, it is a safe bet that both will have sequels being announced in the next few months.

    Daybreakers ruled over the new releases (Thank God! With Avatar winning four in a row, Sherlock Holmes seeing three weeks at number 2, and Daybreakers having the largest opening of the first new releases over the weekend, it is really nice to see that quality still matters to moviegoers.) grossing a mere $15.1 million. The film just barely lost to the second and third stops over the weekend; yet, with a budget of just $20 million, the film should see a profit by the end of next weekend. The film should end up with around $30 million in total. That should make the studio happy.

    It's Complicated saw another weekend of just over $11.0 million. The film has grossed a $76.6.3 million so far, and should find its way to a $100 million by the end of its run. Where It's Complicated impressed, Leap Year failed to shine. With a weekend total of $9.2 million, it is hard to think this film will be nothing more then a distant memory by mid-February. The film could end up with $35 million if it doesn't crash and burn in the upcoming weeks; just in case, expect the film to see a grad total of just $25 million. That should make everyone happy, and show a profit in the home market.

    Youth in Revolt ended up in the ninth spot of the weekend with $6.8 million over the weekend. More then I predicted, but not by very much. The film didn't cost to much to make, and should make a profit somewhere in the home market.

CHRISTMAS ALREADY? (@WAR'S BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS)

It has been a long time since I have had the energy to throw my hat in the ring of box office predictions. I think it is about time that I start it up again.

There are a few movies opening up this weekend. Luckily, there is one that could quickly see its way to $100 million dollars. The others on the other hand may not, and will likely not, be so lucky. The good thing about it is that 2009 is on track to have the most $100 million dollars grossing films in a single calendar year. It is also on track to become the highest grossing year in cinema history. (Shame that it does not reflect the quality of the the majority.)

    A Christmas Carol is the biggest opening movie of this weekend. Considering that is a family Christmas movie, I would be shocked to not see this movie reach the century mark sometime in its theatrical run. The film has also had a pretty aggressive marketing campaign, and almost everybody knows that story as of right now. I would predict this movie could open anywhere from $34 - $45 million. Personally, I think that both ends of those numbers are a little extreme in their own respects. I would say that clean $38.5 million is the most likely. The movie should show a strong hold, being a family film in the upcoming holiday season. It could possibly end its run well over $100 million with $150-$160 million. I'm going to go ahead and say the film will end its run with around $146 million in the domestic box office. Add foreign market numbers, and blu-ray/DVD sales, Disney should see a profit on their $175 million dollar re-imagine. Whether or not this will be enough to make them happy in the end, I can not truthfully say.

    Predicting the film that will reach the top stop is not really hard. This weekend, it is predicting the films that will reach the second through fifth spot, and their order. I would say that we could see The Box reaching as high as $14 million over the weekend. The film has been marketed well, and most people I know would like to see it. However, I think that a more modest opening of $12.3 million is more likely for a movie like this. That film should be followed by Michael Jackson's THIS IS IT with $10.8 million. With Paranormal Activity close behind at $10.2 million. The top five should be rounded out by The Fourth Kind at $9 million.

    Whether I end up being right or not, I have no idea. I guess only time will tell. Hopefully, I get a close. It has been a long time since I've done this.

MY PREDICTIONS
A CHRISTMAS CAROL: $39 million
THE BOX: $12.3 million
THIS IS IT: $10.8 million
PARANORMAL ACTIVITY: $10.2 million
THE FOURTH KIND: $9 million

@WAR'S SUMMER TIME AT THE MOVIES IV: TAKING A BREAK FOR 1, 2, 3 DAYS. (JUNE 12, 2009)

    Well, I'm not really excited about the latest two releases coming out this weekend, but I'm going to be gone all weekend, so it doesn't really matter. (My sister's wedding is all weekend.) However, that does not mean that I wont see them, or that I haven't got any real predictions about them.

@WAR'S SUMMER TIME AT THE MOVIES III: MAY SHOULDN'T HAVE PARTIED SO HARD (MOVIES OF JUNE 5, 2009)

    The movie lineup of June 09' sees many new potential box office successes, and even the potential largest grossing movie of the year; however, we will have to wait the entire month to get there. That being said, hardly any of the movies coming out this June are as strong as they were last year. That could hurt the whole box office lead that 2009 has on 2008's box office.

BEN STILLER LEADS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND (BOX OFFICE ESTIMATES)

_{"Did you mess with his scene? He seems really pissed. What did we do?"}

    Ben Stiller shows nearly every single box office annalist up with an amazing $70 million dollar four-day Memorial Day holiday weekend; the film ended up becoming much stronger then its challenger Terminator Salvation, which only grossed an estimated $53.8 million over the long weekend. In total the film has made $67.1 million in total. This is not bad, but I bet it is disappointing for Warner Brother, after they spent so much to produce and market it.

    Night at the Museum should fall short of its predecessor, and Terminator should have a chance at making just as much as Rise of the Machines did a few years back. It is still likely we will see both of these franchises continue for at least one film each.

JOHN CONNOR BATTLES THE SMITHSONIAN (MEMORIAL DAY BOX WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS)

    This has been the weekend of May that I have been waiting for as far as box office goes. I'm sure that the overall box office can break through the $200 million dollar mark, and help keep 2009''s lead over 2008 just a little longer. This weekend sees the opening of two, count them two, powerful sequels. Both of which have a good shot at becoming the winner of the holiday weekend. Usually, the Memorial Day weekend only sees one high powered monster hit, but this time we are seeing two potential monster hits. This weekend is really too interesting to look past.

    Terminator Salvation has the best chance at reaching the top spot over the weekend because of its long running history, and generational appeal. However, this film is missing the strong female character that the others have tried to play off, and that could hurt the number of women having an interest in seeing the film. It is to be expected that the majority of moviegoers to be men ages 25 and older. The number of men under age 25, and women going to see this film is going to really be the "make" or "break" of this films overall business over the weekend.

    The film has opened today to give it an early start on the weekend, and hopefully get some good word of mouth going before the big weekend. According to reports, the film actually opened to an impressive $3 million midnight showing profit, and we could see an opening day of maybe $20 million if we add those numbers. I'm going to say $17 million opening day just to be safe. This should get word of mouth up, and a possible $22 million Friday gross. I would say look for a weekend of $70 million, a four-day of $81 million, and a five day of $98 million. Maybe I'm being a way to optimistic, but I think this film can pull it off.

    Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian is the second sequel coming out this weekend. Frankly, this film has been marketed towards families, and it should do good due to the lack of competition in that area; yet, I just don't think that people really want to go back and see another Night at the Museum, but I could be dead wrong. This film could actually pick up a few of the females not wanting to see Terminator Salvation, and would like to see a cuter movie. I will also agree that the price of IMAX tickets could help it reach its goal.

    Night at the Museum is looking for the number one spot on the charts this weekend. I will never say it will get it until I actually see it happen; Terminator Salvation is a better movie to release on this weekend. Many people will be looking for an action film to start the summer movie season right. That being said, Night at the Museum is opening on more screens and IMAX. It is possible to see an opening day of $30 million, and a weekend of $75 million; this could give it enough steam for a four day of $88 million. If Terminator Salvation doesn't hold as well as I think it will, I'm not sure it can win the weekend. I'm going to say that Night at the Museum will open to a healthy $68 million with a four-day of $79 million.

    Star Trek is looking for third place; I have been hearing people saying that it can possibly retake another $40 million during the four-day weekend. Personally, I think that maybe a little to optimistic for this film, but given the reviews and word of mouth it is possible. Truthfully, I was saying it was going to hop over the $40 million mark last weekend, but nobody agreed with me on that. I'm going to say that Star Trek will be hauling in another very healthy $40 million over the four-day weekend.

    Angels and Demons is looking to slip pretty badly, but since it is a four-day holiday weekend. I'm going to say that it will see about a -40% drop over the four days, and be on its way to breaking the $100 million dollar mark. I'm giving Angels and Demons a four-day weekend of $27.72 million.

    Dance Flick should most likely be next, and will probably get around $12 million despite its terrible quality. Spoof movies appeal to some people, but I don't know any of them.

    Again, my predictions are kind of optimistic in nature. I did not really spend as much time checking a lot out this time. I'm going with my gut feeling.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS GOING TO BE BIG!!!

    A few days ago we posted up our first ever podcast. (Check it out here) In which we discussed the openings for the three movies coming out over Memorial Day weekend. However, we only talked about movies that are coming out that weekend, but we did not actually talk a lot about the other movies in the market.

    I have a feeling that this weekend will be one of the biggest weekend that we will see this year; however, there is a chance that each movie will cancel out the other, and there will be no real big hit. That would be really bad seeing as there is a lot of confidence in the movies coming out on this upcoming weekend. Frankly, I think that we will see that Memorial Day weekend will combined with counter programing, and we will see a massive overall box office over the weekend and four day counting.

    I want to really talk about Terminator Salvation coming this weekend. This movie was first looked at as a harder sell, and a sure money loser. Until, the first screen shots and footage started rolling out. Basically, the whole thing has managed to get some pretty big hype over the last few months. I don't know anyone who does not at least see it in theaters some time it is out. That being said, it is going up against Night at the Museum, and all the over strong May holdovers. I would be surprised if it can easily make $100 million over the four day weekend. I would think that $85 million over the four day is a really safe bet. That being said, I really have no actual idea of how anything will go.

    Night at the Museum's very unneeded sequel is opening this weekend, and I just can't really see it getting $60 million over the four day. If the film was by itself, then that would be very much in reach, but as we stand I don't really think so. I would hope that the film can channel in $45 - $50 million over the four day, and help the overall to an overall high.

    Lastly, I would like to see, at least, Star Trek hold on over this next weekend. I know that it will have a lot of competition, but the film could actually continue to make money. If it does, then it will be on word of mouth and reviews.

ONE HELL OF A WEEKEND (BOX OFFICE RESULTS)

    The Da Vinci Code left a bad taste in the average movie goers mouths, and it seems that even three years is not enough time to wash it out of our mouths.

    Angels and Demons was the only wide release movie of the past weekend, and won the weekend because of it. However, its performance can be taken one of two ways. With Star Trek so close on its tail, I would go ahead and make my decision. Angels and Demons was able to gross $46.2 million over the weekend. This is actually a really good opening for most movies, but when you compare it to The Da Vinci Code's 77.8 million dollar opening just three years ago, you are left with the idea that this film has failed. Also, when you consider the fact that Star Trek was able to pull in $43.0 million over it's second weekend. It is harder to say that this film wasn't a flop.

    While I'm one of the people who would tell you that this film has mainly suffered form the lack of quality form its predecessor, I would like to point out that Angels and Demons has not even sold half the amount of books that The Da Vinci Code did. It actually seems like a victory when you look it like that; however, I would be really surprised if most people actually do. I'm sure the studio is happy with the film considering it has already made $148.2 million worldwide.

    Star Trek continues to impress basically everybody, as it only falls -42.8% to $43.0 million. The film has grossed $147.6 million domestically, and is on its way to well over $200 million, if this weekend says anything about its box office chances.

    Lastly, Wolverine ended up holding on better in its third weekend then X-Men Last Stand did, but it really doesn't matter. Wolverine fell -44.3% to $14.7 million. It currently has $150.9 million, but $175 may be a little harder to get too.

ANGELS WITH BROKEN WINGS (MAY 15, 2009 BOX OFFICE)

"Look! It's a bird, it's a plane, it's the U.S.S. Enterprise! Hide me!

    Sony Pictures new outing in there Da Vinci Code series opening day numbers have finally hit the internet, and let me be the first to say that they aren't very angelic. With an opening day of $16.5 million, the film has seen a large drop form the originals opening of $28.6 million. Considering on whether or not the film will see a rise in profit or not on Saturday; Angels and Demons could end up taking backseat to Star Trek over the weekend.

    Star Trek was able to pull in $11.8 million over Friday. I can say that it will make more money on Saturday, but will see a drop on Sunday. (This is normal) I think Star Trek has a good chance at getting close to $35+ million over the weekend. Angels and Demons could still get $50+ million, but it needs a good Saturday and Sunday. This is still possible.